Speaker
摘要
中国承诺到2060年实现碳中和以应对全球气候变化，这将需要前所未有地部署负排放技术、可再生能源(RE)和配套基础设施。在太瓦级部署规模下，土地使用限制与电力系统的运行和经济特性相互作用。为解决这一问题，我们开发了一个空间分辨率资源评估和电力系统规划优化模型，该模型模拟了全年电力系统运行、省级以下可再生能源选址标准和输电连接。我们的建模结果表明，风能和太阳能必须分别扩大到2,000至3,900吉瓦，其中一条可行路径将导致2046年至2060年间每年新增300吉瓦的综合装机容量，是当前的三倍。考虑到当前的土地使用政策，超过80%的太阳能和55%的风能将在主要负荷中心100公里范围内建设。大规模低碳系统必须平衡土地使用、可再生能源资源质量、电网整合和成本等关键权衡因素。在更严格的可再生能源选址政策下，至少740吉瓦的分布式太阳能将在高需求地区变得经济可行，这些地区的大型项目部署受到与农业用地竞争的限制。有效的规划和政策制定对实现中国的气候目标至关重要。
Abstract
China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawattscale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.
| 关键词 | 可再生能源，土地利用，电力系统建模，碳中和，中国 |
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| Keywords | renewable energy, land use, power systems modeling, carbon neutrality, China |
