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摘要
电动汽车在增加电力需求的同时，也为电力系统提供了可调度的负荷灵活性。本文评估了在短时历史极端气候压力事件下，电动汽车有序充电与车网互动（V2G）对未来电力系统运行韧性的影响。研究基于中国 2060 年省级小时尺度 PyPSA-China-TIMES 电力系统模型，在年度基准情景确定发电装机、固定储能功率与能量容量、以及省间输电容量后，将三个持续 48--72 小时的历史气候压力事件施加到固定资产系统上，并比较无序充电、有序充电和有序充电叠加 V2G 的运行结果。结果表明，在事件天气与无序充电条件下，三个事件窗口内全国未满足电力需求达到 5.50--19.49 TWh。有序充电可降低 1.08--3.40 TWh 的未满足电力需求，V2G 进一步提供 0.24--0.58 TWh 的额外削减。综合有序充电与 V2G 后，事件窗口内未满足电力需求相对于无序充电降低 20.4%--23.9%。结果说明，在短时极端气候导致集中供需紧张时，电动汽车充电灵活性能够提供可量化的运行韧性价值，其中有序充电是主要贡献来源，V2G 提供较小但稳定的增量贡献。
Abstract
Electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly relevant to power-system resilience because they add electricity demand while also creating flexible load. This study estimates the operating value of EV charging flexibility in a 2060 Chinese power system exposed to short historical climate-stress events. Three 48--72 hour climate-stress events are imposed on a provincial PyPSA-China-TIMES power-system model after installed generation capacity, stationary-storage power and energy capacity, and inter-provincial transfer capacity have been fixed from an annual baseline. Under event weather with uncontrolled charging, national unserved electricity demand reaches 5.50--19.49 TWh within the historical event windows. Smart charging reduces these shortfalls by 1.08--3.40 TWh, and V2G provides a further 0.24--0.58 TWh reduction. The combined smart-charging-plus-V2G response lowers event-window unserved electricity demand by 20.4--23.9%, indicating that EV flexibility can provide measurable operating resilience when short-duration climate stress creates concentrated scarcity.
| 关键词 | 电动汽车；有序充电；车网互动；极端气候；电力系统韧性； |
|---|---|
| Keywords | electric vehicles; smart charging; vehicle-to-grid; climate extremes; power-system resilience; |
