2026年“核理安邦”联合博士生学术论坛

全球光伏组件生产与贸易的一般均衡分析

Not scheduled

12m

地址：清华大学校内

口头报告 环、化、材、技、能源战略 环、化、材、技、能源战略

Speaker

刘 心怡 (清华大学)

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is a key technology for advancing the green tran- sition of the energy system and achieving emission reduction targets. As the core com- ponent of PV systems, PV modules have experienced rapid technological progress and continuous cost reductions in recent years, providing critical support for large-scale PV deployment. However, module production is electricity-intensive, and its carbon emis- sions are closely linked to the local power generation mix. Currently, global PV module production and trade are highly concentrated in China, prompting some countries to adopt protectionist policies, primarily in the form of trade barriers. The implications of such policies for the global production and trade patterns of PV modules, as well as related economic and environmental impacts, remain insufficiently understood.
This study develops a computable general equilibrium model with an explicit PV module sector (C-GEM_PV). Based on a detailed dataset covering module production and energy use, the PV module sector is disaggregated from the electronic equipment manu- facturing sector to explicitly characterize its production, trade, and energy consumption, with the base year updated and calibrated to 2023. Using C-GEM_PV, this study designs multiple trade restriction scenarios to examine how increasing trade barriers under emis- sion reduction targets reshape the global PV module production and trade patterns, as well as associated economic and environmental impacts.
The main findings are summarized as follows. (1) Under emission reduction sce- narios without additional trade restrictions, global PV module production continues to expand, driven by growing demand for PV power, and is projected to approach 1,000 GW by 2035. China remains the central hub of global production, while India exhibits strong growth potential and is expected to surpass Vietnam as the second-largest pro- ducer. (2) Global trade restrictions significantly reduce PV module production, with a maximum decline of approximately 10.9% in 2035, and lower production concentration. Module output decreases in major exporting regions but increases in importing regions. Meanwhile, global PV power generation declines markedly, with the United States being most affected, experiencing a reduction of up to 24.4% in 2035. Trade restrictions lower marginal abatement costs in net exporting countries while increasing them in net import- ing countries, and result in welfare losses across all regions. (3) Global trade restrictions

substantially reduce the total value of PV module trade, while further increasing China’s share in global trade. China’s export structure becomes more diversified, with reduced dependence on the European Union market, whereas the United States decreases its re- liance on imports from Vietnam and shifts toward other Southeast Asian suppliers. (4) When trade restrictions are imposed solely by the United States, their impacts on global PV module production, trade, power generation, and welfare are significantly mitigated, while China’s share in global production and trade further increases. The United States experiences greater welfare losses than under global trade restriction scenarios, whereas other countries face relatively smaller losses.
Based on above findings, several policy implications emerge. (1) Major exporting countries should expand domestic PV application markets and diversify export markets to strengthen resilience against external trade risks. (2) Major importing countries should align trade policies with emission reduction targets and substitute trade barriers with efficiency-driven measures. (3) Countries should replace trade restrictions with multi- lateral consultations, leveraging global trade and climate governance platforms to foster cooperation and prevent trade frictions from impeding global climate governance.

摘要

光伏发电是推动能源结构绿色转型、实现减排目标的关键技术。光伏组件作为光伏发电设施的核心部件，近年来生产技术不断突破，制造成本持续下降，成为光伏发电大规模部署的关键支撑。而组件生产过程消耗大量电力，其碳排放水平与当地电力结构密切相关。目前，全球光伏组件生产与贸易高度集中于中国，引发部分国家对供应安全的担忧，并采取以贸易壁垒为主的产业保护政策，而该类政策对全球光伏组件生产贸易格局的影响，及其经济环境效应尚不明晰。
本研究首先构建涵盖光伏组件生产相关信息的数据集，据此从电子设备制造部门中拆分出光伏组件部门，在一般均衡模型中详细刻画其生产、贸易与能耗， 得到单独刻画光伏组件生产部门的一般均衡模型（C-GEM_PV），并将基年更新校核至 2023 年；进而设计减排政策与贸易限制情景并进行模拟，探究减排目标下贸易限制增加对全球光伏组件生产与贸易格局及经济与环境产生的影响。
研究表明：（1）无额外贸易限制的减排政策情景下，光伏发电需求驱动全球光伏组件产量持续增长，2035 年接近 1,000GW。中国仍占据生产贸易的核心枢纽地位，印度增长潜力较大，将超过越南成为第二大生产国。（2）全球贸易限制将压低全球光伏组件产量，最高限制程度下 2035 年降幅约 10.9%。净出口国产量下降，净进口国产量增加；同时全球光伏发电量显著减少；美国受影响最大，最高限制程度下 2035 年降幅达 24.4%。同时净出口国碳价水平下降， 净进口国碳价上升，且主要国家均承受不同程度的福利损失。（3）全球贸易限制使光伏组件贸易额大幅下降，但中国在全球贸易中占比有所提升。中国出口结构趋于多元化，对欧盟市场依赖程度降低；美国减少对越南的进口依赖，转而增加从其他亚洲国家的进口。（4）若仅美国实施进口贸易限制，全球光伏组件生产、贸易、光伏发电量及福利水平所受影响显著减小，中国在全球生产与贸易中的占比进一步提升。相比于全球贸易限制情景，美国将面临更高的福利损失，其他国家的福利损失有所减轻。
基于上述结论，本研究建议：（1）主要出口国应积极拓展国内光伏应用市场并推动出口市场多元化，以增强抵御外部贸易风险的能力。（2）主要进口国应审慎评估贸易政策与减排目标的一致性，以效率驱动型措施替代贸易壁垒。（3）各国应以协商替代贸易限制政策，借助全球贸易与气候治理的多边对话平台达成共识与合作，防止贸易摩擦延缓全球气候治理进程。